could any successful forex scalp traders share their study sets? ex. what type of chart, do you use sma or ema and if so how far dose it go back, rsi edits where your take profit is and where your stop loss is thanks!
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Went Live Scalping last week for the first time. Forex Traders lets have this discussion.
So a little background knowledge from me. I'm 24 and live in the U.S. Got into trading roughly 2 years ago and have back tested every strategy i have ever created. From position trading to medium terms trades and scalping. Im a HUGE believer that there is NO perfect strategy but instead only perfect execution of said strategy. IMO if you can apply that to yourself you'll be ok. Now, in the picture you will see 3 consecutive losses that were caused by my own personal excitement excitement and had no real logic behind them. every other loss was a real loss and there wasn't much for me to do other than to take it. The discussion I want to have with you traders is why you believe scalping is not profitable. Keep in mind im not looking to be convinced as I already have my own strategy proving to be profitable. EDIT: I Trade hugosway for high leverage and made a deposit of 70 usd. https://preview.redd.it/vlf2jgwqhvj41.png?width=1918&format=png&auto=webp&s=c10cc2b80802ff019ea99caf238a536c736132b3
When i started trading i've been trying to make the best strategy that works i've had many failures but recently after so many attempts i've had a break through and it's finally looking good for me anyone that is trying so hard in this career path hold in there, it takes as much time as you have and it will work in the end <3
La realidad del trading. Te cuento por que la mayoría de personas pierden.
La verdad que en todos lados leo gente diciendo que el trading no funciona y que prefieren meterse en las inversiones a mediano y largo plazo, e ir a lo seguro, lo cual no esta mal, pero en parte estan equivocados. El trading SI funciona, y te voy a explicar por que. Básicamente la mayoria de la gente fracasa porque compra cursos de mierda, de traders de mierda que no saben un carajo. Y cuál es el problema de esto? Que basicamente estas aprendiendo con la información erronea, con los puntos de vista de gente inútil, y cuando vos vas al mercado perdés la mayoria de las veces. Incluso he visto gente con AÑOS de estudio que no saben leer bien la estructura del mercado, y ni hablar de su pesimo rendimiento. Se enfocan en lineas de tendencia, soportes y resistencias, patrones de velas y toda esa basura que te enseñan en youtube, lo cual no esta mal, pero si no tenes un entendimiento de estructura, ciclos, manipulacion no vas a llegar a ningun lado. Y que pasa con esto? Que el tipo que estudio en esos cursos basuras, pierde, se frustra y lo ves en todos lados criticando al trading. Además de tener una estrategia nefasta basada en cientos de indicadores y figuras chartistas, también tiene una pesima gestión de riesgo, lo cual significa fracaso. La mayoría de los traders que vos ves en youtube la plata que generan son de cursos y no de los mercados, no se dejen engañar. Son muy buenos mostrándote resultados pasados en tradingview y subiendo fotos en miami pero operando son un desastre. O también te muestran alguna ganancia que tuvieron y la suben a youtube, a instagram y a donde sea, pero no te muestran el track record completo, asi cualquiera pa. Todo esto que mencioné lo hacen para vender mas y que la gente se haga falsas ilusiones. Cual es mi recomendación? Empezá buscando un curso bueno, con la información correcta. Tenes el de SMB capital, el de Tradingdefuturos y el de Inner circle trader, este ultimo se esta popularizando demasiado y es bastante efectivo. Estos cursos se enfocan en trading institucional, en liquidez, manipulación y todo lo que vos necesitas saber para tener un buen entendimiento del mercado a nivel estructural, etc. Ya diciendote todo esto te ahorre años de tiempo perdido, espero que aproveches. Cual es el siguiente aspecto importante? La gestion de riesgo, si vos tenes esto y una buena estrategia ya tenes rentabilidad. Por que? Bueno, yo siempre recomiendo operar con un ratio riesgo beneficio de 1:3. Que quiere decir esto? Que arriesgo 1 para ganar 3, y de esta forma me puedo permitir tener pérdidas sin que me afecte. Suponiendo que vos arriesgas un 2% por operación, para ganar 6% (1:3), vos necesitarías un 30% de efectividad para salir ganador. Si vos perdes 7 operaciones, y ganas 3, con un 2% de riesgo por trade estarias ganando un total de 4%. Si vos perdes 5 operaciones y ganas 5, con un 2% estarías ganando un 20%. Y asi sucesivamente. Si subís el riesgo a 5% ni te cuento. Y si, seguro algunos monos despues de leer esto me van a querer citar a Warren Buffet diciendo que el gana un 30% al año. Y cual es la diferencia? Warren buffet es multimillonario, vos sos alguien con una cuenta de 500usd. 5% de 80mil millones son 4mil millones. 5% de 500 es de 25usd. Vos si te podes dar el lujo de perder dinero, el no. Ademas, , el es inversor, no trader. Vos al tener cuentas chicas de 100 a 10k te podes dar el lujo de operar con mas riesgo, y asi obtener mas rentabilidad mensual. La rentabilidad que vos tengas va a depender del riesgo que estes dispuesto a asumir. No te sorprendas si ves a gente generando un 200% anual o mensual, o incluso semanal. Por que? Porque probablemente esten usando un riesgo altísimo y si tienen una mala semana cagan fuego. Es posible, por mas que los cabezas de termo te digan que no, si es posible sacar 10%, 20% y 30% mensual, lo que necesitas es una buena gestión de riesgo y una estrategia rentable. Ahora, como dije, todo depende del riesgo que estes dispuesto a asumir, si vos usas un riesgo bajisimo de 0.5% por operación y generas un 5% de 2k, son 100usd, con eso no haces nada., pero en cuentas grandes, de 100k, 5% son 5mil usd, suficiente para vivir tranquilo y cagarte de risa. Ahora, suponiendo que vos ya te leíste todos los libros y cursos e hiciste mucho backtesting, y en demo tenes buena efectividad, pero no tenes los huevos para operar en real, que haces? Fácil, haces una prueba de fondeo en alguna firma, de esa forma si perdes no te quemas tanto, pero si ganas tenes una cuenta de 25k en tu poder. Cual es el requisito de estas pruebas? 4% en seis meses, es decir, tenes seis meses para conseguir ese objetivo. Seis meses es demasiado tiempo, asi que si vos realmente sos rentable lo vas a conseguir. Que mercados recomiendo? Forex y futuros, y si, tambien hay monos que odian forex pero es porque no lo saben operar. En forex tenes mas liquidez, mejor apalancamiento, mercado 24/5, y los análisis fundamentales son mucho mas sencillos. Suponiendo que vos aprendiste con los que te mencioné arriba no vas a tener problemas entendiendo forex. El trading no es tan complicado, la gente se complica y se frustra. Recuerden siempre tener un buen ratio riesgo beneficio y ya no les van a molestar tanto las pérdidas. Yo abro tres o cuatro operaciones al mes con un 2% de riesgo, en scalping, en un dia cualquiera. Si yo gano dos y pierdo dos ya tengo un 8%, que hago? No opero hasta el mes que viene y me enfoco en otras cosas, y listo, no busco mas que eso. No sobreopero, no busco 200% al mes porque no necesito, y tampoco cierro las operaciones antes de tocar el take profit, porque asi es mi gestión de riesgo. A las cuentas de 100usd y 500usd aprovechenlas, usen un riesgo un poco mas alto y con el tiempo van a tener un buen monto. Si ustedes tienen un trabajo estable no les va a joder tanto perder eso. A medida que la cuenta sube el riesgo baja. Siempre antes de mandarse en real asegurense de haber hecho mucho backtesting, mucho. Si pueden traten siempre operar para firmas de trading, es mucho mejor en mi opinión ya que no arriesgas tu dinero y cada cierto tiempo te duplican el capital para operar (en caso de que cumplas con los objetivos). Firmas que recomiendo :The5ers y Ftmo.
Hi, I want to dive into scalping? What’s the lowest time frame I can get into for charts? what platforms are the best for scalping? I’m a us resident, I looked into ecn and stp? Also is td ameritrade a ecn or an stp? I’m starting small so I want a platform that has low spreads with 0 to very low commission, and has good place orders for scalping, thanks
Hello everyone. I'm new in forex. I was just wondering how to differentiate between scalping trading vs day trading. I'm stuck in the definition of those. Is there anybody who could help me to have a clear definition of those. My English is not good. Thank you for taking your time!
Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter. Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic! Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below. Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense. Part III
Squeezes and other risks
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits
Squeezes and other risks
We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.
Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem. This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week. For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.
Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity. The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class. A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone. There's a reason for the car, don't worry Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price. If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point. To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price. Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble. Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it. The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard. Incredible event Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.” If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely. This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze. For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts. A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me: Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.
Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy. Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite. A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012. The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’. They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally. Then this happened. Something that changed FX markets forever The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%. Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.
We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care? Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care. Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable. To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on. On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy. We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like. A carry trade position clear-out in action Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful. The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT"). This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market. Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy. You can find the data online for free and download it directly here. Raw format is kinda hard to work with However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”. But you can easily get visualisations You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful. Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information. As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning. For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back? A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity. For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?” In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit. If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.
Retail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are. Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large. Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem. Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue. Chart from TradingView So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together. The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each. There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio. A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance. But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done? For example:
You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.
You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities.
You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade.
You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue (momentum) and some that assume we will be range-bound (carry).
And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return. The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits
One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction. It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade. Flat is a position. Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it. Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month. Be strict with yourself and walk away Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first. Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period. Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture. Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal. When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.
That's a wrap on risk management
Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback. Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results. Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below. News Trading Part I
Why use the economic calendar
Reading the economic calendar
Knowing what's priced in
First order thinking vs second order thinking
News Trading Part II
Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
Data surprise index
Using recent events to predict future reactions
Buy the rumour, sell the fact
The mysterious 'position trim' effect
Some key FX releases
*** Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
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